Abstract
Yen carry trades have traditionally been viewed in peg terms purely
as a foreign exchange transaction. We postulate that the carry trade should
instead be viewed in the broader mise en scene of global creed conditions. We
show that the volume of Yen championship that is channeled for use outside Japan
is mirrored by
uctuations in the surface of US broker-dealer balance sheets.
Dierences in short-term interest place across currencies help to explain
the incidence of the carry trade, as does the visor of implied equity risk
given by the VIX index. The conjunction of deteriorating credit conditions
in the US and the weakness of the US Dollar against the Yen in the early
stages of the credit crisis of 2007/8 can thus be seen as two sides of the same
coin. Both can be seen as consequences of nancial sphere deleveraging in
the US.
We are g measureful to Tam Bayoumi, Bob Flood, Dick herring and a referee for their suggestions,
and to Tobias Adrian for encouragement and support. The views expressed in this account are
those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of Japan.1. Introduction
The alter of credit conditions that started in the subprime sector of the
US mortgage credit market in the summer of 2007 has implications for external
leeway for the United States.
As the credit crisis unfolded over the ensuing
months, weakness in credit markets was attach to by the conspicuous weakness
of the US dollar, with short-term exchange rate
uctuations mirroring closely
overall conditions in the credit market. The nancial press
1
at the time referred
to a collective margin call on the United States in which foreign creditors sought
to reduce their exposure to the deteriorating creditworthiness of US borrowers
(including nancial intermediaries) by swell back lending or demanding higher
premiums to cover potential losses.
2
The consumption of our paper is to examine one component of the external adjustment - namely,...If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: Ordercustompaper.com
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